Why Egypt accepts the Ethiopian's Dam: author's perspective.

Photo taken by the author. January 2014.

I couldn't find to time to enter discourse  over the the tripartite agreement inked in Khartoum between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopian over the Rennaisance Dam Ethiopia has been constructing to boost its economy and national development.

Egypt has been opposed to the construction of the Dam for years now, citing the dangers of such endeaours over its "historical rights" over the Nile River. Two agreements, 1929 signed between the British's Empire and the Egypt and 1959, between Egypt and Sudan allegedly gave Egypt "legal  ownership" and "exclusive utility right" over the Nile River, world longest river. All other riparian countries on the Nile were barred through the two agreements from using the Nile or any legal claim or utility right.

There are eleven riparian countries on the Nile who ought to make use of the Nile River for development and economic purposes. The countries are Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Eritrea, D.R. Congo, and Tanzania. 

These countries have historically since their independences, called for a review or nullification of the 1929 Nile Water Agreement which they consider null and void because it did not cater for the interest of all the countries who share umbilical cord to the Nile. 

Nile Basin Initiative based in Entebbe, Uganda was launched as a forum for discussing the Nile disputes, conflict resolution mechanisms, and perhaps hopefully to pave way for the creation of a new multinational and multilateral hydro agreements among the 11 riparian states. Both Sudan and Egypt, watered down over the years the capacity and role of the NBI.

 In 2010, however, in almost in unilateral way, some seven upper riparian countries signed in Entebbe, the Common Framework Agreement, a move away from NBI stagnation. The CFA had two purposes, it carried the water interests of all the Nile members states, even Egypt and Sudan which did not sign the agreement, and it heralded a new era to the Nile water conflict, a replacement of the colonial agreement which had excluded most of the countries in the region.

Blue Nile, known locally as the Abai in Ethiopia produces 80% of the Nile waters which go to Sudan and Egypt. Ethiopia has a spiraling population which is now standing 94.1 millions people this year. Poverty has always put millions of lives at risks both in Ethiopia and countries of the Horn. In spite of this,  Ethiopia could not make use of the Blue Nile River for anything, economic development or electricity, just because the 1929 agreement barred the country from that right. In Ethiopia, there is a local saying, " Abai produces plenty of water, yet the sons and daughters of Blue Nile are ever thirsty!"

Four years ago, the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) unilaterally with support from the upper riparian countries, relying on its local resources, contributed and mobilized from its citizens began constructing what would become the African largest hydro dam ever constructed in the continent and one of the largest dams in the world, - the Grand Ethiopian Rennaisance Dam (GERD). Egypt and Sudan have been opposing the construction, forswearing severe consequences which is military brinkmanship. Nonetheless, the construction has been on unthwarted and is in its fourth year of construction with 40 % of the work completed.

The GERD has been a major politics in Egypt among the citizens, academic community and political parties, sometimes with political candidates invoking the use of military to shutdown the Dam. Ethiopia has never relented its commitment to any threat. Ethiopian citizens have been giving their salaries and other contributions to the dam's construction and the entire nation is rallied behind the dam project. Time was now ticking for an all out conflict involving all the Nile countries plus, should the major parties remained intransigent towards military solution over political solutions. 

Such threats were more obvious in Egypt where the Muslim Brotherhood, a radical and fundamentalist party had won the Egyptian presidential election. For fear that the MB might and could unleash the ammaggedon through careless handling of the conflict over the dam, the Egyptian Army had to remove Mohammed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood elected Egyptian President. Egypt has other stakes with the region and the world such as the ever precarious relations with the state of Israel. Unimaginable war could be unleashed with a single button! 

Just last month, the long running tension over the Ethiopian Dam came to relief when Egypt through its   Military President , Field Marshal Assisi, accepted the Dam as non-threat project and that Ethiopia has equal right like Egypt and any other to use the Nile for its development and power generation. The three countries, Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia converged in Khartoum where they signed a mutual understanding agreement over the Dam. Egyptian President visited Ethiopia where he addressed the national parliament after the agreement to make assurance and faith in what they had signed.

I am from South Sudan, another riparian country, a new country that has never known any form of meaningful development throughout her history. South Sudan, was part of the Old Sudan. However, it seceded in 2011 to become an independent state after five decade conflicts.  To this author, Egypt did not just sign the new agreement or accept the Ethiopian Dam, in a natural way.

Egypt's new conspiracy

The author standing over the dam in January 2014.

I was asked of an opinion over the new agreement in Khartoum by colleagues, some Ethiopian diplomats who have just graduated from the school of diplomacy and international relations. I told them my view. I had visited the Dam some five months ago. I saw the GERD. It is a promise both to the Ethiopian people and to the African continent! 

Why has Egypt made a change of heart?

Egypt's change is a good thing for all the parties in the conflict over the Nile and also for the world. The shadow of threat and probably of war has passed. Perhaps, Egypt has come to the realization that, Ethiopia was not about to give up its right over the Nile. Both the late Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi and the current one, Hailemariam Desalgn have called their right over the Nile and need for the Dam as " as a matter of survival" for Ethiopia. Ethiopia would sacrifice and shed blood to defend its development. That could not be underestimated, not even by Egypt. The conflict would not be Egyptian-Ethiopian exclusive affair. It is inherently a regional conflict that would draw in and involve all the riparian countries, plus in it. That would be a global disaster of colossal magnitude and damage.

I have watched Al Jazzeera documentary over the Nile. Egypt accuses Israel of working hard to harm its water interest among the upper riparian states. Over the past five decades, Egypt and Israel have been flirting with the countries in Eastern Africa as a trade off of their direct differences and potential risks. After the death of Abdel Nassaer, and Sadat, Egyptian roles in the region was confined to the supervision of the Nile, something loathe  very much by the upper riparian countries. Israel knew this card and hold it to create a balance of power in the Middle East conflict.

A tryst is said to be existing between Ethiopia and Israel and Egypt must have been held in the throat by this twist. Ethiopia had circumvented the Egyptian influence in international financial institutions such as the World Bank and IMF, which refused or created false excuses or conditions for not financing the construction. These institutions have done the same to Karuma Dam project in Uganda which could not take off because of lack of resources or finances to finance it. Egypt must have thought, war with Ethiopia and/or the riparian states might not serve any interest at all.

Seondly, Ethiopian's position over the issue has been uncompromising. Stealthily, both countries, Egypt and Ethiopia hold some relative powers in Africa in terms of populations, in terms of military, in terms of alliances, and historical leverages over the rest of the African countries. Ethiopia can not be cowed into something it does not believe in, by Egypt or by any other.

Egypt's new conspiracy

Like it did to Sudan in 1959, Egypt wanted through this new agreement, to absorb and integrate Ethiopia into a Nile Club of Three, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. When you can not defeat, go along with. It means, the Khartoum agreement is technically meant to exclude the rest of the riparian states such that, in the future, Egypt could still create problems to any other riparian country that will want to make use of the Nile. It is using a lion strategy, divide and conquer. Technically, that means Egypt's intention is to take away Ethiopia from the rest of the upper riparian states' membership and join the lower riparian States club. So now, there are three Nile water agreements, 1929, 1959 and 2015, one between Britain and Egypt, between Egypt and Sudan, and between Egypt and Ethiopia.

The upper riparian states without Ethiopia will no longer be a threat to Egypt, either indivdually or collectively. That means, countries like South Sudan will find it hard in future to go it alone to construct dams for economic development on the Nile. Preemptively, already Egypt has been engaging South Sudan's Government since 2005 promising and proposing to construct small dams in cities outside the Nile. Staying together with the all the riparian states would be safer for South Sudan to guarantee and protect her interests.

I understand, the signing in Khartoum was witnessed by the rest of the member countries of the Nile. Unless the new agreement is void of phrases reiterating the Egyptian's right over the Nile, the member states, by being presence, they have acceded to the new agreement. I have no read the terms of the agreement anyway. 

Is Ethiopia aware of Egypt's motive? Ethiopia may be aware but it is giving the future what belongs to it and what belongs to the presence to the presence. What is critical is the current dam project to meet its goal. Therefore, Ethiopia's position can not be known now. It will be known along the way of its role in the Nile water continuous engagement under both the NBI and the CFA. Is Ethiopia satisfied with one dam project? Nobody can tell. However, the country depends on agriculture vis-a-vis the running away population and its current industrial development and expansion. The country has huge development demands that will not go away at least in the future, until it industrialized and becomes a developed nation in number of decades a head.

I conclude by saying that, Egyptian acceptance of the Ethiopian's dam is technically a game, albeit it has served the Ethiopian's, riparian states' interest and global interest.